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CWT Limited: Global Player Sets Its Sights Further

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Broker House: SIAS Research
Analyst: Koh Chin Lek

Price: $1.02
Target : $1.06
Recommendation: Hold
Upside: 3.92%

Summary:

Company updates/Events

Exceptional Quarterly Performance: CWT Limited, a leading logistics player,reported earnings growth of 173.0% to S$8.1m in 1Q07 from S$2.9m in 1Q06.The increase was on the back of a 40.3% surge in turnover from S$83.1m toS$116.7m. Net profit nearly tripled to S$7.5m from S$2.7m.

Logistics Business Boost Earnings: The profit surge was contributed largelyby its Logistics business where NVOCC (i.e. Non-vessel operating commoncarriers) services remain as the top contributor. Net profit to shareholdersfrom Logistics business grew by more than 3-fold to S$4.4m in 1Q07. The commodity logistics division recorded net earnings of S$2.87m. Profit from the Engineering Services increased by more than 30% as more jobs were closed forbilling in 1Q07.

Improved Margins: Gross margin gained 2.5%-points from 8.5% 1Q06 to11.0% in 1Q07, and EBITDA margin saw a similar increase of 1.6%-points to 8.3%.The margin was due to a strong revenue growth and a big jump in other operatingincome from S$0.1m to S$2.6m. With strong contributions from joint companies and associates, net margin was up from 3.4% to 6.9%, an increment of3.5%-points.

Strengthened Balance Sheet: Total assets increased by 22.9% to S$379.0mbetween 1Q-FY07 and 1Q-FY06, reflecting improvements in cash, and increase inproperty, plant and equipments’ value. Shareholders’ equity increased fromS$137.5m to S$146.0m, a rise of 6.2%.

Outlook

Optimistic outlook backed by government: In the 2006 SingaporeBudget, Prime Minister Lee announced that his Cabinet aimed to strengthenSingapore’s existing traditional sectors, with one of them, being logistics. Fourfinancing and tax incentive schemes were introduced to attract more internationalship-owning and ship-operating companies to set up operations inSingapore. Strategic location, efficient 24/7 operations, reliable physical and ITinfrastructure and excellent connectivity have made Singapore a compelling globallogistics hub. With total value added in the logisticssector standing at S$350m in 2006, up from S$285m in 2005, companies suchas CWT that are able to provide valueadded service would stand to gain fromthis backdrop.

Connecting to Ukraine and Russia: Ukraine currently enjoys most favourednationstatus with the European Union for export operations, and is not required tobind its own tariffs. This is an excellent attraction that could lead to theestablishment of more vertical Foreign Direct Investment in Ukraine. To relocateto developing countries such as Ukraine,logistics and supply activities are the topthree most important functions.

CWT has formed a 72-28 JV with Economic Development Group, areputable Ukrainian investment group, to develop logistics facilities and establish a comprehensive distribution network in major cities across Ukraine and Russia.The facilities will be strategically located in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, andOdessa, the main seaport of Ukraine. Thus, the company is well-positioned toseize the growing demand for quality logistics facilities and services in Ukraine.

Additional warehouse space: CWT has existing warehouse space of more than4m sqft globally, and is expected to increase to more than 7m sqft by end2008. Currently, only two of their warehouses are under the sale and leaseback (S&L) arrangement with Cambridge Industrial Trust in July 2006. There are possibilitiesof more S&L arrangement which may further boost their earnings.

Risk

High dependence on NVOCC: NVOCC business segment softened in 1Q07consequent to festive seasons in China and generally keener competition forcertain trade lanes. Being the major contributor to revenue and earnings,should NVOCC not be able to fight off its competitors, the company’s top- andbottom-line would be adversely affected.

Severe economic downturn: An economic downturn would lead to declinein world trade and this in turn causes a decline in demand for warehouse space.The NVOCC business segment would be affected as well since it is a freightconsolidation operation. Margins may dip and growth would come to a standstill.

Valuation/Recommendation

Price performance: Since our last report in Feb 07, the price of CWT has increased about 47% from S$0.69 (adjusted for rights issues and shares placement) toS$1.02.

Revised forecast: We have upped our revenue forecast for FY07 by 8.4% fromS$415.8 to S$437.8m due to the higher turnover and earnings contribution shownin 1Q07, as well as the higher rental rate. We have also raised net profit forecast for FY07 from S$23.0m to S$25.2m, and FY08 earnings forecast to S$30.0m.However, we have lowered the EPS for FY07 from 6.6cts to 4.4cts and FY08 from7.8cts to 5.2cts due to the right issues and the placement of 55m new shares.

Recommendations: Based on the average historical PE of 28x, we valuedCWT using a 20% discount of 22x and the average EPS of FY07 and FY08, and arriveat a fair value of S$1.06. Our new target price represents a 3%upside from the current share price of S$1.03. We downgrade to a ‘HOLD’ recommendation.




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